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James M a laissé un avis sur Fooled By Randomness
il y a 2586 jours


TALEB offers us life saving insights about being gullible and too trusting in misleading ideas and charlatans. Guru's sell their latest opinion about food, climate and happiness based on flawed induction and survivorship bias. They miss the randomness of any trends and the fact that no one can replicate what is obtained through chance. Taleb is famous for the Black Swan Theory where an event is a surprise (to the observer) and has a major impact. After it is rationalized by hindsight. Examples of black swans include 9/11, financial collapse, power grid failure, the internet, rapid climate change.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend: Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the Ancient World's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses.

"Intelligent, honest, and revealing. There exists a distinct Taleb way of thinking and it is contagious." Marco Avellandea, Professor of Mathematical Finance, New York University.

Fooled By Randomness

Nassim Taleb